Most of the people are only betting for fun – to be interested in the sports event. Are you such a punter? This is the bookmaker’s dream, because such betting secures a lot of winnings for the bookies. Now, I am going to tell you the first steps of how to become a sharp bettor. Firstly, you must know that you won’t win a 100% of your bets! Nobody can do it! But if you can achieve a percentage which is close enough to 56%, you are going to be a profitable player!
One of the most important things is to find a good bookmaker, who offers the best odds and bonuses. www.bestbettingbonuses.co.uk is a great guide to the bookies, who offer good bonuses, which you can use to start with your betting strategy. There is everything explained for the best bookmakers and the biggest bonuses on the market.
To continue with, when you pick the match you are going to bet on, you must calculate your “Expected Value”. There is a formula, which helps you to find your Expected Value. For example, if you are going to bet on Manchester United’s home victory against Sunderland, the odds for the hosts are 1.30. That means the bookmaker gives Man United the chance of 76,92% of winning the match. You decide to place a bet of £10.
Moreover, you have seen Manchester United beating Sunderland in The Premier League at home in 6 of the last 7 matches between these two teams, or 85% of the occasions the match finishes with a home victory! So, we have to put the numbers into this formula: ((percentage of winning the bet) X (amount you will win)) – ((percentage of losing the bet) X (amount you are going to bet)). It will look like this: (85% X 3) – (15% X 10) = 1,05.
You received a positive number, which means that your bet will surely be profitable. Remember, run away from betting on a negative expected value – it will surely lead you to losses. However, the “Expected Value” doesn’t guarantee you that you will inevitably win the bet we took for the example, but in this case, it secures you a profit in continuously betting on such odds. In addition, don’t forget to read the teams’ stats such as recent form, clean sheets, goal difference and so on, before betting!
Now you know how to find the profitable bets, but there is one more very important thing. How much should you bet? Again, we have to use a formula. Firstly, decide what will your bankroll be. Using the formula, you are going to receive a fraction of your bankroll. Here is the Kelly’s formula: ((decimal odds – 1) X (probability of winning) – probability of losing) / (decimal odds – 1).
At both ends, you now have the basic knowledge, but there are still a lot of things to learn before you can call yourself a sharp bettor. However, now you know how to calculate your betting amount and how to decide on which team you have to put your money.